Seasonal synchronization and unpredictability in epidemic models with waning immunity and healthcare thresholds

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dc.contributor.authorEclerová, Veronikacs
dc.contributor.authorSen, Deeptajyotics
dc.contributor.authorPřibylová, Lenkacs
dc.coverage.issue5cs
dc.coverage.volume15cs
dc.date.accessioned2025-07-17T08:59:27Z
dc.date.available2025-07-17T08:59:27Z
dc.date.issued2025-05-22cs
dc.description.abstractThis paper explores a model integrating healthcare capacity thresholds and seasonal effects to investigate the synchronization of epidemic cycles with seasonal transmission rates, using parameters reflective of the COVID-19 pandemic. Through bifurcation analysis in the epi-seasonal domain, we identify regions of significant seasonal synchronization related to transmission rate fluctuations, waning immunity, and healthcare capacity thresholds. The model highlights four sources of unpredictability: chaotic regimes, quasiperiodicity, proximity to SNIC or transcritical bifurcations, and bistability. Our findings reveal that chaotic regimes are more predictable than quasiperiodic regimes in epidemiological terms. Synchronizing outbreaks with seasonal cycles, even in chaotic regimes, predominantly results in significant winter outbreaks. Conversely, quasiperiodicity allows outbreaks to occur at any time of the year. Near eradication unpredictability aligns with historical pertussis data, underscoring the model’s relevance to real-world epidemics and vaccine schedules. Additionally, we identify a bistability region with potential for abrupt shifts in disease prevalence, triggered by superspreading events or migration.en
dc.formattextcs
dc.format.extent1-20cs
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfcs
dc.identifier.citationPHYSICA D-NONLINEAR PHENOMENA. 2025, vol. 15, issue 5, p. 1-20.en
dc.identifier.doi10.1038/s41598-025-01467-4cs
dc.identifier.issn1872-8022cs
dc.identifier.other198157cs
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/11012/255188
dc.language.isoencs
dc.publisherNATURE PORTFOLIOcs
dc.relation.ispartofPHYSICA D-NONLINEAR PHENOMENAcs
dc.relation.urihttps://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-025-01467-4cs
dc.rightsCreative Commons Attribution 4.0 Internationalcs
dc.rights.accessopenAccesscs
dc.rights.sherpahttp://www.sherpa.ac.uk/romeo/issn/1872-8022/cs
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/cs
dc.subjectSIRS modelen
dc.subjectSeasonalityen
dc.subjectBifurcationen
dc.subjectChaosen
dc.subjectQuasiperiodicityen
dc.titleSeasonal synchronization and unpredictability in epidemic models with waning immunity and healthcare thresholdsen
dc.type.driverarticleen
dc.type.statusPeer-revieweden
dc.type.versionpublishedVersionen
sync.item.dbidVAV-198157en
sync.item.dbtypeVAVen
sync.item.insts2025.07.17 10:59:27en
sync.item.modts2025.07.17 10:34:01en
thesis.grantorVysoké učení technické v Brně. Fakulta podnikatelská. Ústav informatikycs
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