Assessment of Large-Scale Projects Based on CBA

Abstract

CBA is a very important and strong tool for economic effectiveness evaluation of public investment projects. The outputs (NPV, IRR and BCR) are dependent on correctly set input data. As has been proved recently, an inaccuracy in forecast occurs very often. This paper deals with analysis of particular benefits, which help to create the total benefit for evaluation of road infrastructure projects and megaprojects based on CBA according to the Czech methodology. Moreover, it considers the overall inaccuracy of the project regarding the partial inaccuracies and their shares. Monte Carlo simulation has been applied in order to determine the share of particular benefits and the closest similar probability distribution of these shares to the total benefit of the project. Research results have confirmed that the largest share and the most severe inaccuracy in the total benefit is represented by savings in travel time costs. They have revealed that the share of this benefit has the logistic probability distribution with mean of about 77% and 20.72% of standard deviation. The inaccuracies of the particular benefits have been studied in international research. As a result, very large differences were found. That means that there is still a large space for exploration.CBA is a very important and strong tool for economic effectiveness evaluation of public investment projects. The outputs (NPV, IRR and BCR) are dependent on correctly set input data. As has been proved recently, an inaccuracy in forecast occurs very often. This paper deals with analysis of particular benefits, which help to create the total benefit for evaluation of road infrastructure projects and megaprojects based on CBA according to the Czech methodology. Moreover, it considers the overall inaccuracy of the project regarding the partial inaccuracies and their shares. Monte Carlo simulation has been applied in order to determine the share of particular benefits and the closest similar probability distribution of these shares to the total benefit of the project. Research results have confirmed that the largest share and the most severe inaccuracy in the total benefit is represented by savings in travel time costs. They have revealed that the share of this benefit has the logistic probability distribution with mean of about 77% and 20.72% of standard deviation. The inaccuracies of the particular benefits have been studied in international research. As a result, very large differences were found. That means that there is still a large space for exploration.