Geopolitical deadlock and phosphate shortfall behind the price hike? Evidence from Moroccan commodity markets

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dc.contributor.authorVochozka, Marekcs
dc.contributor.authorJanek, Svatoplukcs
dc.contributor.authorŠiráňová, Lenkacs
dc.coverage.issue8cs
dc.coverage.volume69cs
dc.date.accessioned2024-02-19T12:46:05Z
dc.date.available2024-02-19T12:46:05Z
dc.date.issued2023-08-11cs
dc.description.abstractPhosphate fertilisers rank among limited conventional production aids, requiring eco-unfriendly mining methods. On the other hand, wheat is an indispensable agricultural commodity essential in the food industry. For this reason, it is appropriate to monitor the potential bivariate relationship between these commodities and to follow their future development closely. The article aims to identify a correlation (Kendall's tau) and causal (Granger causality test) between the price of Moroccan phosphate and wheat, applying vector autoregression (VAR). The results show a medium-to-strong correlation between phosphate and wheat, while causal analysis suggests a reciprocal relationship. The final prediction indicates the price stability of Moroccan phosphate and a fall in wheat prices, showing steady trends of the Moroccan phosphate and wheat market affected by the alarming situation in Ukraine. The article's drawbacks are a narrow market specialisation, which ignores other agricultural commodities. Our findings contribute to national officeholders and professional public, private and non-profit agrarian organisations. Investors may benefit from exploring turbulent exogenous variables like a critical geopolitical deadlock in Ukraine. The main contribution highlights the fact that the conventional fertiliser and wheat market situation appears to be stable and free from elements of uncertainty.en
dc.formattextcs
dc.format.extent301-308cs
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfcs
dc.identifier.citationAgricultural Economics-Zemedelska Ekonomika. 2023, vol. 69, issue 8, p. 301-308.en
dc.identifier.doi10.17221/140/2023-AGRICECONcs
dc.identifier.issn1805-9295cs
dc.identifier.orcid0000-0001-6407-3135cs
dc.identifier.other184650cs
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/11012/245047
dc.language.isoencs
dc.publisherCZECH ACADEMY AGRICULTURAL SCIENCEScs
dc.relation.ispartofAgricultural Economics-Zemedelska Ekonomikacs
dc.relation.urihttps://agricecon.agriculturejournals.cz/artkey/age-202308-0002_geopolitical-deadlock-and-phosphate-shortfall-behind-the-price-hike-evidence-from-moroccan-commodity-markets.phpcs
dc.rightsCreative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 Internationalcs
dc.rights.accessopenAccesscs
dc.rights.sherpahttp://www.sherpa.ac.uk/romeo/issn/1805-9295/cs
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/cs
dc.subjectGranger causalityen
dc.subjectKendall's tauen
dc.subjectMoroccan phosphateen
dc.subjectVector Autoregression Modelen
dc.subjectwheaten
dc.titleGeopolitical deadlock and phosphate shortfall behind the price hike? Evidence from Moroccan commodity marketsen
dc.type.driverarticleen
dc.type.statusPeer-revieweden
dc.type.versionpublishedVersionen
sync.item.dbidVAV-184650en
sync.item.dbtypeVAVen
sync.item.insts2024.02.19 13:46:05en
sync.item.modts2024.02.19 13:13:26en
thesis.grantorVysoké učení technické v Brně. Fakulta podnikatelská. Ústav informatikycs
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