Comparison of Approaches for Calculating the Probability of a Project Completion

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dc.contributor.authorDoubravský, Karelcs
dc.contributor.authorDoskočil, Radekcs
dc.coverage.issue1cs
dc.coverage.volume2015cs
dc.date.issued2015-09-14cs
dc.description.abstractThe paper deals with a comparison of two different approaches (PERT method and Monte Carlo method) for calculation of the probability of a project completion. The PERT method is commonly used in a project management; the Monte Carlo is used less. The base assumption of authors can be expressed: The difference between the results obtained by the Monte Carlo method and PERT method is not significant with increasing number of simulations (iterations). For this reason, the hypothesis was formulated: There is no statistically significant difference between the calculated probabilities, i.e. both approaches are identical from application’s point of view. The case study describes a model of a project, which is shown by a network chart. This chart contains 18 nodes and 18 real activities and 6 fiction’s activities. Each activity is expressed by three time estimates, i.e. pessimistic, most likely and optimistic time. The planned date of completion of the project was selected at 200 time units and it was calculating the probability of completion of the project by PERT method and Monte Carlo method. Time duration of each project activity by the Monte Carlo method is successively obtained for 10, 100, 300, 500, 1000, 5000 and 10000 simulations. The calculated probabilities of project completion were compared using statistical hypothesis testing. The hypothesis was rejected for all simulations. It follows that there is difference between the approaches from application’s point of view.en
dc.formattextcs
dc.format.extent1-7cs
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfcs
dc.identifier.citationJournal of Eastern Europe Research in Business & Economics. 2015, vol. 2015, issue 1, p. 1-7.en
dc.identifier.doi10.5171/2015.638688cs
dc.identifier.issn2169-0367cs
dc.identifier.orcid0000-0002-6882-1046cs
dc.identifier.orcid0000-0002-9716-1411cs
dc.identifier.other116446cs
dc.identifier.researcheridGLR-2336-2022cs
dc.identifier.researcheridGLN-8159-2022cs
dc.identifier.scopus56067188800cs
dc.identifier.scopus57191598634cs
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11012/201068
dc.language.isoencs
dc.publisherIBIMA Publishingcs
dc.relation.ispartofJournal of Eastern Europe Research in Business & Economicscs
dc.relation.urihttp://www.ibimapublishing.com/journals/JEERBE/2015/638688/a638688.htmlcs
dc.rightsCreative Commons Attribution 4.0 Internationalcs
dc.rights.accessopenAccesscs
dc.rights.sherpahttp://www.sherpa.ac.uk/romeo/issn/2169-0367/cs
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/cs
dc.subjectMonte Carlo methoden
dc.subjectPERT methoden
dc.subjectprobability of project completionen
dc.subjectstatistical testing.en
dc.subjectMetoda Monte carlo
dc.subjectmetoda PERT
dc.subjectpravděpodobnost dokončení projektu
dc.subjectstatistické testování
dc.titleComparison of Approaches for Calculating the Probability of a Project Completionen
dc.title.alternativePorovnání přístupů výpočtu pravděpodobnosti dokončneí projektucs
dc.type.driverarticleen
dc.type.statusPeer-revieweden
dc.type.versionpublishedVersionen
sync.item.dbidVAV-116446en
sync.item.dbtypeVAVen
sync.item.insts2025.02.03 15:43:28en
sync.item.modts2025.01.17 16:44:01en
thesis.grantorVysoké učení technické v Brně. Fakulta podnikatelská. Ústav informatikycs
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