Decision-making on Implementation of IPO Under Topological Uncertainty

Abstract

IPO (Initial Public Offering) is a complex decision making task which is always associated with different types of uncertainty. Poor accuracies of available probabilities of lotteries e.g. quantification of investor interest is studied in the first part of this paper (Meluzín, Doubravský, Dohnal, 2012). However, IPO is often prohibitively ill-known. This paper takes into consideration the fact that decision makers cannot specify the structure/topology of the relevant decision tree. It means that one IPO task is specified by several (partially) different decision trees which comes from different sources e.g. from different teams of decision makers/experts. A flexible integration of those trees is based on fuzzy logic using the reconciliation (Meluzín, Doubravský, Dohnal, 2012). The developed algorithm is demonstrated by a case study which is presented in details. The IPO case integrates two partially different decision trees.IPO (Initial Public Offering) is a complex decision making task which is always associated with different types of uncertainty. Poor accuracies of available probabilities of lotteries e.g. quantification of investor interest is studied in the first part of this paper (Meluzín, Doubravský, Dohnal, 2012). However, IPO is often prohibitively ill-known. This paper takes into consideration the fact that decision makers cannot specify the structure/topology of the relevant decision tree. It means that one IPO task is specified by several (partially) different decision trees which comes from different sources e.g. from different teams of decision makers/experts. A flexible integration of those trees is based on fuzzy logic using the reconciliation (Meluzín, Doubravský, Dohnal, 2012). The developed algorithm is demonstrated by a case study which is presented in details. The IPO case integrates two partially different decision trees.