Using Predictive Model of Mean Monthly Flows for Large Open Reservoirs Hydropower Control

Abstract

Conventional hydropower reservoir operations are mostly based on rules or rule curves. The paper describes algorithm which has been created on idea of adaptive control theory. The adaptive control approach uses repeatedly generated medium-term water flow predictions on a several months ahead as inflows into the large open reservoirs. Values of control outflows are searched by evolution algorithm optimization methods. Principle of the predictive model of average monthly flows is introduced in this paper. The algorithm is applied to the operation hydropower control of selected reservoir.Conventional hydropower reservoir operations are mostly based on rules or rule curves. The paper describes algorithm which has been created on idea of adaptive control theory. The adaptive control approach uses repeatedly generated medium-term water flow predictions on a several months ahead as inflows into the large open reservoirs. Values of control outflows are searched by evolution algorithm optimization methods. Principle of the predictive model of average monthly flows is introduced in this paper. The algorithm is applied to the operation hydropower control of selected reservoir.