The trade-off between goals and uncertainty of outcome in professional team sports

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dc.contributor.authorHaugen, Kjetil K.
dc.contributor.authorArntzen, Halvard
dc.coverage.issue2cs
dc.coverage.volume11cs
dc.date.accessioned2023-01-02T07:54:44Z
dc.date.available2023-01-02T07:54:44Z
dc.date.issued2022cs
dc.description.abstractBased on an assumption of an existing scoring probability difference be- tween two teams engaged in a football match, the conditional probability distri- bution given the number of goals in the match for the low quality team beating the high quality team, is derived. Furthermore, similar distributions for the high quality team beating the low quality team as well as a draw are also derived. Based on a Poisson distribution of goals, we discuss a potential for optimizing expected uncertainty of outcome (UO) by adjusting intra-match rules or league rules for team sports. The main variables in this regard are (i) the typical number of goals scored, and (ii) the evenness of competing teams. We identify a curve defining the optimal expected number of goals as a function of team quality difference.en
dc.formattextcs
dc.format.extent119-131cs
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfen
dc.identifier.citationMathematics for Applications. 2022 vol. 11, č. 2, s. 119-131. ISSN 1805-3629cs
dc.identifier.doi10.13164/ma.2022.9en
dc.identifier.issn1805-3629
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11012/208721
dc.language.isoencs
dc.publisherVysoké učení technické v Brně, Fakulta strojního inženýrství, Ústav matematikycs
dc.relation.ispartofMathematics for Applicationsen
dc.relation.urihttp://ma.fme.vutbr.cz/archiv/11_2/ma_11_2_haugen_arntzen_final.pdfcs
dc.rights© Vysoké učení technické v Brně, Fakulta strojního inženýrství, Ústav matematikycs
dc.rights.accessopenAccessen
dc.subjectapplied probability, stochastic programming, conditional probability distribution, scoring probability, uncertainty of outcomeen
dc.titleThe trade-off between goals and uncertainty of outcome in professional team sportsen
dc.type.driverarticleen
dc.type.statusPeer-revieweden
dc.type.versionpublishedVersionen
eprints.affiliatedInstitution.departmentÚstav matematikycs
eprints.affiliatedInstitution.facultyFakulta strojního inženýrstvícs
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