The Influence of Uncertainties in the Calculation of Mean Monthly Discharges On Reservoir Storage

Abstract

In normal practice, during the estimation of reservoir storage uncertainties affecting the values of mean monthly discharge series are not normally considered, and usually no estimates of these are known. Therefore, the question arises as to whether the results of the estimation of the capacity of stor-age reservoirs may be affected by uncertainties in the discharge series. The aim of this article is the sug-gestion of a possible approach to estimating the level of uncertainties affecting the elements of mean monthly discharge series. These discharge series are subsequently integrated into water reservoir storage capacity calculations, and the significance of the proposed approach is explored.

In normal practice, during the estimation of reservoir storage uncertainties affecting the values of mean monthly discharge series are not normally considered, and usually no estimates of these are known. Therefore, the question arises as to whether the results of the estimation of the capacity of stor-age reservoirs may be affected by uncertainties in the discharge series. The aim of this article is the sug-gestion of a possible approach to estimating the level of uncertainties affecting the elements of mean monthly discharge series. These discharge series are subsequently integrated into water reservoir storage capacity calculations, and the significance of the proposed approach is explored.