Bradley–Terry modeling with multiple game outcomes with applications to College Hockey

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dc.contributor.authorWhelan, John T.
dc.contributor.authorKlein, Jacob E.
dc.coverage.issue2cs
dc.coverage.volume10cs
dc.date.accessioned2022-02-21T12:10:30Z
dc.date.available2022-02-21T12:10:30Z
dc.date.issued2021cs
dc.description.abstractThe Bradley–Terry model has previously been used in both Bayesian and frequentist interpretations to evaluate the strengths of sports teams based on win-loss game results. It has also been extended to handle additional possible results such as ties. We implement a generalization which includes multiple possible outcomes such as wins or losses in regulation, overtime, or shootouts. A natural application is to ice hockey competitions such as international matches, European professional leagues, and NCAA hockey, all of which use a zero-sum point system which values overtime and shootout wins as 2/3 of a win, and overtime and shootout losses as 1/3 of a win. We incorporate this into the probability model, and evaluate the posterior distributions for the associated strength parameters using techniques such as Gaussian expansion about maximum a posteriori estimates, and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo.en
dc.formattextcs
dc.format.extent157-177cs
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfen
dc.identifier.citationMathematics for Applications. 2021 vol. 10, č. 2, s. 157-177. ISSN 1805-3629cs
dc.identifier.doi10.13164/ma.2021.13en
dc.identifier.issn1805-3629
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11012/203933
dc.language.isoencs
dc.publisherVysoké učení technické v Brně, Fakulta strojního inženýrství, Ústav matematikycs
dc.relation.ispartofMathematics for Applicationsen
dc.relation.urihttp://ma.fme.vutbr.cz/archiv/10_2/ma_10_2_whelan_klein_proof_final.pdfcs
dc.rights© Vysoké učení technické v Brně, Fakulta strojního inženýrství, Ústav matematikycs
dc.rights.accessopenAccessen
dc.subjectBradley–Terry
dc.subjectCollege Hockey
dc.subjectInternational Hockey
dc.titleBradley–Terry modeling with multiple game outcomes with applications to College Hockeyen
dc.type.driverarticleen
dc.type.statusPeer-revieweden
dc.type.versionpublishedVersionen
eprints.affiliatedInstitution.departmentÚstav matematikycs
eprints.affiliatedInstitution.facultyFakulta strojního inženýrstvícs
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