Insolvency Forecasting through Trend Analysis with Full Ignorance of Probabilities

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dc.contributor.authorPoláček, Tomášcs
dc.contributor.authorKruntorádová, Markétacs
dc.coverage.issue3-4cs
dc.coverage.volume27cs
dc.date.issued2020-05-31cs
dc.description.abstractThe complex views of insolvency proceedings are unique, poorly known, interdisciplinary and multidimensional, even though there is a broad spectrum of different BM (Bankruptcy Models). Therefore, it is often prohibitively difficult to make forecasts using numerical quantifiers and traditional statistical methods. The least information-intensive trend values are used: positive, increasing, zero, constant, negative, decreasing. The solution of a trend model is a set of scenarios where X is the set of variables quantified by the trends. All possible transitions among the scenarios are generated. An oriented transitional graph has a set of scenarios as nodes and the transitions as arcs. An oriented path describes any possible future and past time behaviour of the bankruptcy system under study. The graph represents the complete list of forecasts based on trends. An eight-dimensional model serves as a case study. On the transitional graph of the case study model, decision tree heuristics are used for calculating the probabilities of the terminal scenarios and possible payoffs.en
dc.formattextcs
dc.format.extent17-30cs
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfcs
dc.identifier.citationActa Oeconomica Pragensia. 2020, vol. 27, issue 3-4, p. 17-30.en
dc.identifier.doi10.18267/j.aop.625cs
dc.identifier.issn1804-2112cs
dc.identifier.orcid0000-0003-1397-6099cs
dc.identifier.other164176cs
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11012/193385
dc.language.isoencs
dc.publisherUniversity of Economics, Praguecs
dc.relation.ispartofActa Oeconomica Pragensiacs
dc.relation.urihttps://aop.vse.cz/artkey/aop-201903-0002_insolvency-forecasting-through-trend-analysis-with-full-ignorance-of-probabilities.phpcs
dc.rightsCreative Commons Attribution 4.0 Internationalcs
dc.rights.accessopenAccesscs
dc.rights.sherpahttp://www.sherpa.ac.uk/romeo/issn/1804-2112/cs
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/cs
dc.subjectforecasten
dc.subjectinsolvencyen
dc.subjecttrenden
dc.subjectqualitativeen
dc.subjectbankruptcyen
dc.subjecttransitionen
dc.titleInsolvency Forecasting through Trend Analysis with Full Ignorance of Probabilitiesen
dc.type.driverarticleen
dc.type.statusPeer-revieweden
dc.type.versionpublishedVersionen
sync.item.dbidVAV-164176en
sync.item.dbtypeVAVen
sync.item.insts2025.02.03 15:43:01en
sync.item.modts2025.01.17 15:15:05en
thesis.grantorVysoké učení technické v Brně. Fakulta podnikatelská. Ústav ekonomikycs
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