Shallow foundation design: a comparative study of partial safety factors and full probabilistic methods

Abstract

In the past two decades, Europe has witnessed a significant transition in the design codes used for assessing foundation structures, with the widespread adoption of the Eurocodes (EC). This shift remains a pertinent topic within the engineering community, particularly concerning the transition from traditional design methodologies to those prescribed by the Eurocodes, as well as the potential for fully probabilistic design. While the Eurocodes’ methodology is described as probabilistic, it is crucial to recognize that the achievement of the target reliability level is predominantly facilitated through a system of partial safety factors. These factors are integrated into the calculation algorithm as fixed values, rendering the process essentially deterministic. To refine these calculations for more accurate reliability estimates—expressed in terms of failure probability—a genuinely probabilistic framework is required, termed as fully probabilistic computation. This paper aims to elucidate the fully probabilistic calculation approach for the broader professional community, using the geotechnical application of shallow foundations as an illustrative example. We present a comparative analysis of this advanced approach with the standard foundation design according to EC7 and ČSN 731001, the latter being a precursor in Europe for implementing the partial safety factor method. The discussion extends to a practical demonstration of full probabilistic design juxtaposed against the conventional partial safety factor method, using a shallow foundation case study. Furthermore, the paper delves into the impact of the tail behavior of uncertain or spatially varying soil parameters on the theoretical probability of failure, underscoring its significance in foundation design.In the past two decades, Europe has witnessed a significant transition in the design codes used for assessing foundation structures, with the widespread adoption of the Eurocodes (EC). This shift remains a pertinent topic within the engineering community, particularly concerning the transition from traditional design methodologies to those prescribed by the Eurocodes, as well as the potential for fully probabilistic design. While the Eurocodes’ methodology is described as probabilistic, it is crucial to recognize that the achievement of the target reliability level is predominantly facilitated through a system of partial safety factors. These factors are integrated into the calculation algorithm as fixed values, rendering the process essentially deterministic. To refine these calculations for more accurate reliability estimates—expressed in terms of failure probability—a genuinely probabilistic framework is required, termed as fully probabilistic computation. This paper aims to elucidate the fully probabilistic calculation approach for the broader professional community, using the geotechnical application of shallow foundations as an illustrative example. We present a comparative analysis of this advanced approach with the standard foundation design according to EC7 and ČSN 731001, the latter being a precursor in Europe for implementing the partial safety factor method. The discussion extends to a practical demonstration of full probabilistic design juxtaposed against the conventional partial safety factor method, using a shallow foundation case study. Furthermore, the paper delves into the impact of the tail behavior of uncertain or spatially varying soil parameters on the theoretical probability of failure, underscoring its significance in foundation design.