Analysis of the influence of input data uncertainties on determining the reliability of reservoir storage capacity

Abstract

The paper contains a sensitivity analysis of the influence of uncertainties in input hydrological, morphological and operating data required for a proposal for active reservoir conservation storage capacity and its achieved values. By introducing uncertainties into the considered inputs of the water management analysis of a reservoir, the subsequent analysed reservoir storage capacity is also affected with uncertainties. The values of water outflows from the reservoir and the hydrological reliabilities are affected with uncertainties as well. A simulation model of reservoir behaviour has been compiled with this kind of calculation as stated below. The model allows evaluation of the solution results, taking uncertainties into consideration, in contributing to a reduction in the occurrence of failure or lack of water during reservoir operation in low-water and dry periods.The paper contains a sensitivity analysis of the influence of uncertainties in input hydrological, morphological and operating data required for a proposal for active reservoir conservation storage capacity and its achieved values. By introducing uncertainties into the considered inputs of the water management analysis of a reservoir, the subsequent analysed reservoir storage capacity is also affected with uncertainties. The values of water outflows from the reservoir and the hydrological reliabilities are affected with uncertainties as well. A simulation model of reservoir behaviour has been compiled with this kind of calculation as stated below. The model allows evaluation of the solution results, taking uncertainties into consideration, in contributing to a reduction in the occurrence of failure or lack of water during reservoir operation in low-water and dry periods.